So let’s do that. Above is what an electoral map based on the state-by-state House results would look like. Sure, one could do it with actual vote totals. Compare that with the 2012 outcome of Obama 332 electoral votes, Romney 206 (popular margin, 3.9%), or the 2008 outcome of Obama 365, McCain 173 (popular margin, 7.2%). Some 115 million votes were cast in the House in 2018, according to estimates by the US Elections Project, up from 83 million in 2014. Rachel Findley Sam, I see that Michigan voted for an independent districting commission, when is that supposed to start, after the census? Democrat Tammy Baldwin, first elected in 1998, has been winning with around 60 percent of the vote ever since. Right now for 2018 it is 425/435. Redistricting Moneyball: key legislative races. She was elected at a time when there were two seats available from Montana, and getting around 20 percent of the vote qualified her for the second one. One Democrat who substantially increased her party's share was Sharice Davids, the joint-first Native American Congresswoman. This may look a bit different from the media narrative that it was a victory for Republicans – which it was, certainly in terms of retaining control. Is New York’s New Subway Map a ‘Geographical Mess’? President Trump's core constituencies of white working class voters also appear to have turned out for the party in House races. It’s approximately sigmoidal. Nov 03: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Sam's Article on Poll Aggregation (International Journal of Forecasting), 2016 Primary: Early signs of a Trump nomination, 2016 Primary: Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process, 2016 Primary: GOP Polls vs. Google Correlate, 2016: Presidential results by Congressional district. It’s been drawn up this way by Republicans to squeeze their opponents’ supporters into one Congressional district. The election turned out approximately as expected from advance information, a narrowly-Democratic House and a Republican Senate. LondonYoung Beware of this methodology – because dem districts usually have fewer voters than GOP districts. This flips it back to red. LondonYoung You can inspect the three calculations here. The interactive also allows users to view the data in the form of a cartogram, where each district is represented as a discrete bubble and the ones in populous metropolitan areas cluster together. (See the comment thread for further discussion.). This is higher than any year since 1914. The Republicans raised their vote share in just 67 districts. There’s more than one way to look at the results of the 2018 midterms, and, this Election Day, as the results come in, The New Yorker is offering three. I thought it might be good to look at the results from the perspective of 2020. I’d ask: statistically, does the number of knife-edge races match what polling indicated? .css-8h1dth-Link{font-family:ReithSans,Helvetica,Arial,freesans,sans-serif;font-weight:700;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:#FFFFFF;}.css-8h1dth-Link:hover,.css-8h1dth-Link:focus{-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}Read about our approach to external linking. In terms of districts, the outcome is quite close. Trump’s victory in 2016 triggered an existential crisis for the American political experiment, and a host of explanations have been presented, including a flawed electoral college system, distortions in the role of the president, and extreme partisan divides stemming from deep-seated racism. The vote totals are 3661700 Rep, 3274981 Dem: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lqIPvhw8irHZeGKDNL4FVaFIxBJLtnXG9RIGle2ek7o/edit?usp=sharing. Back in 1844, for example, the nativist “Know Nothing” party won seats in Philadelphia and New York on an anti-Irish campaign. This version gives a sense of the rural-urban divide in political representation over time. Here’s a snapshot of the great Blue Wave of 1932, when Democrats picked up 97 seats in the House: The map also allows users to trace the constantly changing geography of Congressional districts—through regular redistricting and partisan gerrymandering. Chichilnisky. // Nov 10, 2018 at 5:11 pm. They collect data about how people use their results service. Above is what an electoral map based on the state-by-state House … I’m willing to agree that Florida is a closely contested state. .css-14iz86j-BoldText{font-weight:bold;}In a dramatic election night President Donald Trump's Republican Party retained control of the Senate and the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives. // Nov 12, 2018 at 10:14 am. Have a confidential tip for our reporters? It was calculated by averaging the district vote share percentage for each state and seeing which side gets over 50%. By clicking on a single district, the interactive allows users to explore its particular political trajectory. No, the relationship between popular vote and electoral vote is a nonlinear function. Heading into the elections, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies. This is subject to their terms and conditions and the BBC does not have access to this data. There was talk before the election of a rising "blue wave" - Democrats increasing their vote share across the country. Switch between the Senate, House and Governor tabs to see the state of each map, and click on states or districts to explore vote counts in individual races. Here Are the Local Ballot Measures That Passed and Failed, The High Cost of Locking Down D.C. for Election Week. The really fun thing about the map is that it allows users to dive down historical rabbit holes, and retrieve facts that help contextualize what we’re seeing in American politics today. // Nov 7, 2018 at 1:48 pm, “This is done by averaging the district vote share for each state and seeing which side gets over 50%.”. My suggestion what that we shouldn’t assume all CD’s have the average number of voters because heavily dem districts have fewer voters. In Senate races, and other statewide races, gerrymandering is not a factor. The Democrats increased their vote share in 239 districts, but they didn't win all of them. But when it comes to Congressional sentiment, Florida is slightly Democratic-leaning. // Nov 7, 2018 at 4:07 pm. However, the House election is measured not by people but districts.

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